Analysts Assess Outcomes of Potential Taiwan Strait Conflict at Ketegalan Forum | Taiwan News

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – On Tuesday, July 26, analysts assessed the consequences of a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the Ketagalan Forum – Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue 2022.

Former US Secretary of Defense James Mattis stressed that the Russian-Ukrainian war had had an impact on the international order, and that countries that value democracy and sovereignty should immediately strengthen their alliances to sanction Russia and support Ukraine, CNA reported. He said Russia and China originally expected the seizure of Ukraine to be relatively quick.

However, the Russian military suffered severe losses and the disastrous results shocked Xi Jinping (習近平), Mattis said. The Russian military could easily mobilize troops near the land border with Ukraine, but the attack on the Eastern European nation encountered many problems, he said.

The former defense secretary noted that the Taiwan Strait is about 180 kilometers wide and launching an amphibious operation against Taiwan is a much more uncertain and risky endeavor for China. These factors serve to remind Xi not to use random force against Taiwan.

Jayadeva Ranade, director of the Center for China Analysis and Strategy, an Indian think tank, expressed a similar view. He said Russia’s failed attack on Ukraine and Western economic sanctions have worried senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials because most of their children are studying in the United States, according to CNA.

If China is sanctioned for attacking Taiwan, their children would have to return to China and their foreign assets would also be frozen, he said.

However, Ranade said that would not change Xi’s aggressive policies. Through constitutional amendments, Xi pointed out that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will impact many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, Taiwan and India.

Ranade also said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was fully supported by Xi. The two leaders met before the war and issued a joint statement expressing support for each other’s core interests and opposing foreign forces that interfere in the internal affairs or undermine the border security of the two countries.

Their rationalization of the war against Ukraine also echoes China’s tough stance on Taiwan and India, Ranade said.

Robin Niblett, director of the British think tank Royal Institute of International Affairs, said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was aimed at rebuilding territory lost by the Soviet Union after the Cold War. Niblett said he fears Ukraine’s outright propensity to the West could hurt Russia’s fight against the United States.

Likewise, Taiwan, Tibet and Hong Kong are also historic unfinished tasks for the CCP, Niblett said. Even though Taiwan did not gain de jure independence, he worries that Taiwan and China are permanently separated, which not only hurts the status of China’s rulers, but also hampers the authoritarian nation’s struggle for self-determination. world power, he said.

Niblett said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with Russia’s alliance with China, has led many Pacific countries to support US and EU sanctions on the Russia. He said it was an Atlantic-Pacific partnership and that this relationship would strengthen the roles of the United States and the EU in the Indo-Pacific region.

Rory Medcalf, director of the National Security College at the Australian National University, said the Russian-Ukrainian war had made Australians aware of existing threats and strengthened public opinion in favor of a regional alliance. This is a phenomenon that we had not seen a few years ago, he said.

Former Japanese Deputy Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama said democratic partners should pay more attention to the importance of cybersecurity and global supply chains. He also said that Taiwan is not only a friend of Japan, but also a member of its family.

He reiterated that an emergency in Taiwan is also an emergency in Japan.

Melvin B. Baillie